There is one idea that explains most of solar economics in the UK, and once you have it, quotes and comparison tables stop being confusing.
A kilowatt-hour your panels produce can go to one of two places, and it is worth a very different amount depending on which.
- 1You use it as it is generated. It is worth the full retail price you did not have to pay, which is the unit rate on your bill including VAT.
- 2You export it to the grid. It is worth whatever your supplier pays under the Smart Export Guarantee, which is typically a fraction of the retail price.
That is the whole thing. Everything else, from array size and orientation to batteries and tariffs, is a way of changing the proportion that falls into the first bucket rather than the second.
Why self-consumption is the number that matters
The share of your generation you use as it is produced is called self-consumption, and it is the least discussed and most decisive figure in a solar quote.
A household at home during the day, whether that is someone working from home, a young family or a retired couple, naturally uses a large share of what the roof makes. The kettle, the washing machine and the fridge are all drawing power at the same time the sun is on the panels. Very little is exported, so very little is paid at the low rate.
A household out from eight until six has the opposite profile. The panels do their best work into an empty house. Most of the day's generation goes to the grid at the export rate, and the electricity used to cook dinner that evening is bought back at the retail price.
Same roof, same weather, same annual output. Substantially different money.
What this means for solar quotes
A quote that promises a single savings figure has quietly made an assumption about your daily routine, and it has almost certainly made a flattering one. Ask what self-consumption rate it assumes. If the answer is a round number applied to every customer, the figure underneath it is a template rather than a calculation.
Does a bigger array always earn more?
Not proportionally, and this surprises people who assume solar scales linearly.
The first few panels displace electricity you were going to buy anyway, so every unit they make is worth the retail price. Once your array produces more than you can consume in the moment, the extra output has nowhere to go but the grid, where it earns the export rate.
So the value per panel falls as the array grows. A larger system still earns more in total, but each additional kilowatt earns less than the one before it. Whether that is worth the extra capital is a genuine question rather than an obvious yes, and it is one worth putting real numbers to.
The three levers you actually control
- Your export rate. Set by your supplier, changeable by switching, and the fastest thing to fix because it needs no equipment and no installer.
- Your self-consumption. Moved by shifting flexible loads into daylight hours: dishwasher, washing machine, EV charging, immersion heater. Free, and more effective than most people expect.
- Storage. A battery raises self-consumption by holding surplus generation until the evening. It is the expensive lever, and the one worth checking carefully before buying.
The first two cost nothing. It is worth exhausting both before considering the third, which is the subject of its own guide.